Source: MIC

April 2007, no.66 vol.VII

INTERVIEW

MIC INTERVIEW WITH BLAGICA NOVKOVSKA, DIRECTOR OF THE STATE STATISTICAL OFFICE

Theobjectivityofstatisticsdependsonthesource

As an experienced statistician and director of the State Statistical Office, I believe that the statistics we produce reflect Macedonia’s economic and social situation. However, the extent to which a statistical data is true greatly depends on the source from which the statistical information is garnered. Building "statistical literacy" is a long-term process in which population of diverse ages should be included. This means that the Statistical Office in the future will try to improve the situation by way of taking a number of activities. I believe that with the Euro-integration processes and the full realization of the coordination role of the State Statistical Office in the statistical system of the country, we will succeed in creating conditions for full application of the European standards in the Macedonian statistical system.

- On returning from Washington, Finance Minister Trajko Slaveski said that the IMF believed that Macedonia’s economic growth was higher than that presented by the State Statistical Office. Do you agree?

- The basic function of the Statistical Office is to measure processes in society through closely defined statistical methods. As an experienced statistician and director of the State Statistical Office, I believe that the statistics we produce reflect Macedonia’s economic and social situation. However, the extent to which a statistical data is true greatly depends on the source from which the statistical information is garnered. As for the GDP figure, I have to say that its relevance is measured by applying European and international methodologies that include diverse sources of data from a number of areas at the institution itself and from other administration sources as well. In this period, the State Statistical Office produces quarterly GDP data, which are largely based on indicators that the Office has at its disposal. At the end of the year, when the annual statistics are produced and the quarterly GDP figures are revised, we can state with certainty if the previously presented data on the quarterly GDP growth are correct or no. The difference between the definitive and early GDP data does not indicate miscalculation. It is a result instead of the corrections made when including data that improve the exhaustiveness of the GDP figures.

- A change in the GDP methodology is being announced. Are the calculations really flawed?

- As I already stated, we are making the GDP calculations by fully applying the international (SNA 93) and the European (ESA 95) methodologies and for these reasons I totally disagree with the allegation that the methodology is improper and that it needs to change. We constantly improve the exhaustiveness of the data by including and excluding sources of data and the technique of the calculations that realistically reflect the situations in the Macedonian economy. The Statistical Office has conducted this process independently or with assistance from more experienced international experts in the field.

- You announced a series of activities to strengthen the "statistical literacy" and improve the communication with customers. What have you achieved in this respect?

- Building "statistical literacy" is a long-term process in which population of diverse ages should be included. This means that the Statistical Office in the future will try to improve the situation by way of taking a number of activities. Our experts have so far delivered a few lectures to students about statistical methodologies and statistical properties. As a director and expert in a number of statistical areas, I myself held two lectures before students at the New York College and the Faculty of Economics of the University of Ss. Cyril and Methodius. We organized two symposiums too about informing the broader public on the activities of the Statistical Office and redesigned our press releases in order to better their intelligibility and make them simpler for use by our customers. The new press releases will start early next year.

- Do you still hold to your position that the lack of information on the application and the EU’s demands for introducing European standards with all the participants in the statistical system, as well as the lack of information on the significance of having relevant and quality data, are potential threats to your institution’s capacity to track the changes occurring in the processes of integration?

- A strategic commitment of the State Statistical Office is producing statistics about the Republic of Macedonia that are comparable with the European and the international ones. The obstacles you mentioned do not mean that we will give up these processes. They only make the process of applying European standards more difficult. At this point I have to say that as Macedonia’s Euro-integration processes intensify, the awareness of the participants in the statistical process of the need for and significance of statistics grows. Therefore, I believe that with the Euro-integration processes and the full realization of the coordination role of the State Statistical Office in the statistical system of the country, we will succeed in creating conditions for full application of the European standards in the Macedonian statistical system.

- The importance of the statistics in the process of creation of home policies and the integration with the EU is indisputable. The European Commission appraised the statistics of the Statistical Office as the most competent, yet called for harmonization of the data of the Ministries with those of the Statistical Office. Where exactly the lack of coordination has been noted?

- It’s true that the EU gave us and is still giving us high grades of the statistics we produce. However, the other participants in the statistical system have to keep up with the process of harmonization too, while certain ministries were encouraged to use exclusively the statistics produced by the Statistical Office in making their analyses. This underlined the importance that they simultaneously use the harmonized definitions and standards in following the phenomena of their respective areas and the uniform classifications instead of certain non-valid records of assorted internal and external sources.

- The language of numbers is merciless and they always show the country’s real progress, while European bureaucrats take them into account first. Can statistics free themselves from narrow partisan influence?

- Statistical production in Macedonia is free from partisan interests. In Macedonia, partisan influence is seen through the use and abuse of the statistics we produce for pursuing a variety of daily partisan goals. I cannot really say when and if the use of statistics for pursuing partisan goals stops. What I can say with certainty is that as the Macedonian economy and democracy rise, the accuracy of numbers will be less and less debated. Numbers will become a reason for discussing progress achieved in a given area instead. In this regard, I believe that through our intensified activities for improving the statistical culture in the country, we will help diminish the use of statistics for justifying certain political activities.

- You also said that inflation indicators would no longer be kept a business secret, because you are resolved to amend the image of the institution. Ho do you plan to do that?

- First of all, I did not say that the inflation indicators would not be a secret, because the State Statistical Office does no calculate the inflation rate. It calculates a retail price index and a costs-of-living index instead. What I did say was that the Office would start announcing ponders in the calculation of certain indexes. This procedure is already being applied in calculating the industrial production index, while ponders in calculating other indexes will be announced early next year.

- How far has the making of the agricultural register gone?

- The agricultural register will be made from 1 to 15 June and we are working hard to carry it out successfully. We realized all the activities from the professional and methodological point of view. We prepared a methodology and compiled questionnaires and instructions, while activities relating to a number of public procurements, the informing of the population about the making of the register and the organization are underway.